Note from an Unknown Friend!

Hello there! To all the new quarantine chefs and the rest who are tasting them new dishes, hope you are safe. My name is Mr. I-knew-it-all-along.

Since Chandana is drowned in books and seems nowhere to be found, I dropped by to have a quick little chat with you before she realizes and feels 'I knew this would happen' (pun intended). Alright, let me introduce myself properly. I go by a formal designation called Hindsight (bias), but I am more comfortable with the informal one. 

As any reality show progresses to the finale, I usually see people guessing about 2 or 3 participants that have the possibility to win, and as soon as one of them wins, they would immediately claim, 'I knew it, I knew it was her even before they picked up the participants' Whoa! There you go. In short, I come into the picture when someone precisely calculates the result of an event, only after it has happened. Elections, sports, politics, education, you name it I got it. Thus, my presence is ubiquitous in everyday lives but remains obscure.

I will bring up some interesting examples throughout to acquaint myself, albeit most of you must have come across me in your childhood. A prominent one is when you confidently circle the wrong option in the exam, but later when you come out and realize the correct answer, you would think 'Arghh, I knew this would be the right one' though it was one of the million probable ones popped up in your mind during the test. There, right there! Just at the killer revealing scene when you are watching a thriller, your friend yelling, 'of course, it had to be him' (eliminating the other two bad fellas). Also there!

Grandparent cluster

While everyone feels this way at some point, the grandparents seem to like me more. 

What is the first thing you hear them say when you come back hurt riding a bicycle, or playing cricket? In 9 out of 10 cases, the rant would start with 'I always knew, this would happen. You would come back bruising your knees every time you return home. No one listens to me anymore" But, if you ask them why they didn't warn you if they knew in prior, their response would be something like this...

'I perfectly hindsight-ed this situation with my ability to foresight but intentionally chose to oversight according to my insight, and that is my right' Yikes!

People who think in hindsight bias never go wrong. Curious why? Because they make predictions in retrospecting the events. Once the consequences are known, everything becomes obvious. It appears as if you were expecting the result all along. It is entertaining to watch the brain connect the dots by selectively recalling the facts, picking up only the relevant information, and forming the reality. 'He has always been a lunatic. With her dressing style, we knew where this was leading all the time'. It nearly makes one feel like Sherlock Holmes without John Watson.

Even I had an experience with my friend named confirmation bias. I met with a rough accident when I was in teens, and he said that he knew this would happen if I drove the bike through that road. Well, thank you (?). I just broke my leg, no big deal.

This formula turns bizarre when it comes to superstitious beliefs.

'I missed the important train today. Well, I crossed paths with a black cat in the morning. So, it was meant to happen'. Holy moly!

I think I have a broken mirror in my room. I will try to relate something to it. Oh, and let's not even talk about number 13. They better not watch 13b.

When you go by your decisions and fail, there will be someone around to pull you down, declaring that with your way of handling things, they know all along you are going to crash. The same people will flip the sides and recite the exact words when you succeed with supporting evidence. For your reference, some of them are called relatives in the Indian dictionary.

So, what's the big deal about me?

• You give me the power to manipulate your minds and induce false memories: It ain’t no inception movie. But, I can make it look like one. 

• You make me change the perception of history: You wrecked it enough, creating new war names and years in social studies. Let it live in peace now. 

• You make me come into your way of learning from experiences and take the joy out of it: Seriously dude, if your grandma keeps crediting me to such level, even I will soon forget to look back and learn.

• You grant me the potential to make you believe that the circumstances are inevitable: Be the Batman to your Gotham; challenge me. 

Feeling that you knew the answer to a question you missed or a situation risked is quite natural. But it should come with a boundary just like in a cricket stadium to keep the fun alive. Life is best in the unexpected and raw version. Appreciate the uncertainty of the past and keep it natural, like Imagine Dragons.

So, next time when someone announces that they knew the brown horse was going to win, ask them why they put their money on a white one instead.

Until next time,

You-know-who!